This market indicator predicted the 2007 financial crisis. It just flashed red again

adminNovember 30, 2021November 30, 2021Leave a Comment

“It looks like worries about the global slowdown have been confirmed and the market is starting to factor in some easing from the Fed, a potential recession to come,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab & Co. “This is clearly a sign that the market is worried about growth and is turning to Treasuries from riskier asset classes.”

A wave of buying took the 10-year yield to new lows for the year. That yield fell 17 basis points from Tuesday’s close, the day before the Fed’s decision. Weaker-than-expected data from European factories, which helped push German benchmark yields below zero on Friday, also supported the move.

The 3 month to 10 year curve is widely preferred as an indicator that the economy is within a few years of a recession. But Friday’s move is an extension of the reversal at the front end of the curve that occurred in December. The spread between 2-year and 10-year rates also narrowed to around 10 basis points.

This article originally appeared on Bloomberg.