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Auto executives expect electric vehicles to hold half of U.S. and Chinese markets by 2030 – survey

DETROIT, Nov.30 (Reuters) – Auto industry executives expect electric vehicles to account for just over half of new vehicle sales in the United States and China by 2030, and could do so without receiving government grants, according to a new survey from accounting and consulting firm KPMG.

But combustion vehicles, including hybrids, are expected to retain a significant share of most major auto markets for years to come, according to KPMG’s latest annual survey of 1,000 auto industry executives.

The speed at which automakers can phase out combustion engines and the carbon dioxide they emit is a critical issue for the global auto industry. A group of automakers and countries signed a statement earlier this month calling for the phase-out of combustion vehicles around the world by 2040 and by 2035 in wealthier countries.

But the world’s two largest car manufacturers by sales, Volkswagen AG (VOWG_p.DE) and Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T), and three of the world’s largest vehicle buying countries – China, the United States and Germany – have not signed.

KPMG’s survey of auto industry executives found that they believe electric vehicles will account for 52% of sales by 2030 in the United States, China and Japan, with lower percentages for the Western Europe, Brazil and India. But behind these global forecasts, industry executives have very different views.

For China, some auto industry executives expect electric vehicle sales by 2030 to be less than 20% of the market, while others believe the world’s largest market may be at 80% electric by then.

Sales of electric vehicles around the world have so far been fueled by government subsidies. But 77% of respondents to KPMG’s survey said electric vehicles can be massively adopted in ten years without government help, as battery costs drop to the same level as petroleum engines. However, 91% of auto executives said they supported government subsidies.

The large-scale survey also found that 75% of executives surveyed expect their companies to sell “non-core” assets in the years to come as they reassess which lines of business will be viable as they grow. as more and more new vehicles are switching to battery electric technology.

“There are going to be a lot of mergers and acquisitions,” said Gary Silberg, global automotive practice leader at KPMG.

Despite the supply chain disruption and pandemic of the past year, around 53% of executives surveyed said they were confident the industry can achieve profitable growth over the next five years.

The most optimistic leaders were in the United States and China, the most pessimistic were in France, according to the survey.

Our Standards: Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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